Context
Venezuela and Guyana have been in a territorial dispute over the Essequibo region since the independence of Venezuela from Spain in 1811. The most recent intent from Venezuela to take over the territory after ExxonMobil found commercial quantities of oil in the coast disputed.
Venezuela is a federal presidential republic, their current president Nicolás Maduro has been in power as a part of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela since 2013. Meanwhile, Guyana is a parliamentary republic who’s President, Irfaan Ali, also serves as a Prime Minister. The Essequibo region is currently considered part of Guyana’s territory.
This region is rich with natural resources and today the news came out that the President of Venezuela is promoting a bill to create a province called “Guyana Esequiba”. Venezuelan companies have been ordered to enter the territory to look for more natural resources.
The Guyanese President disagrees with this new Venezuelan bill; he states it is a direct threat against Guyana and he threatened to take the case to the United Nations Security Council.
To give some perspective on the difference between these territories: Venezuela has a population that massively overwhelms Guyana (28.8 million versus 800,000 respectively), and the Gross Domestic Product of each territory reflects the difference in powers as well. The GDP of Venezuela being over 450 billion dollars, and Guyana’s only 8 billion.
Disputed Region in Guyana
Source: NewsWeek, 2023
Institutional Liberalism
Given the principles of institutional liberalism, it is unlikely that Venezuela, Guyana, and the region of Essequibo will engage in a war due to their dispute.
Institutional liberalism says that the presence of international organizations, economic interdependence, and democratic political structures decrease the likelihood of war. In the case of Venezuela and Guyana, their involvement in international bodies and the democratic nature of Guyana’s government, significantly reduce the chances of a military conflict over the Essequibo region. These factors encourage negotiation and peaceful resolution of disputes, prioritizing cooperation and peace over conflict.
Through this lens it’s very probable that an agreement will be reached, also considering the difference in power between the two places. Venezuela is so much bigger than Guyana that the power cannot be overbalanced.
It’s probable that there will be increasing tensions between the territorial powers due to the presence of natural resources. Institutions look to survive, and these resources in the Essequibo region will help the survival of whichever state controls them.
It’s not likely that there will be a war. For all of the reasons mentioned above, the theory of institutional liberalism, and the fact that an armed conflict between the two would barely be a war; Venezuela would dominate Guyana without a problem based on sheer military force. But, because of this, it’s also a strategically bad idea for Venezuela to use physical force against Guyana because it’s an unfair fight and would negatively affect the image of the country.
References:
1. Jazeera, A. (2023, 6 diciembre). Venezuela raises the stakes over disputed Guyana territory. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/6/venezuela-aims-to-exploit-oil-and-gas-in-disputed-guyana-land-immediately
2. Phillips, A. (2023, 4 diciembre). Map shows region Venezuela has voted to take from Guyana. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-map-referendum-1849209
3. ChatGPT. (n.d.). OpenAI. https://chat.openai.com/#
4. Teorías de relaciones internacionales en el siglo XXI: interpretaciones críticas desde México (2a ed.) – Asociación Mexicana de Estudios Internacionales. Asociación Mexicana de Estudios Internacionales. https://amei.mx/biblioteca-virtual/teorias-relaciones-internacionales-en-siglo-xxi-2a-ed/
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