Context of Putin in the Middle East
Who met up?
Russian President Vladimir Putin, President of the UAE Mohamed Bin Zayed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman
What did they talk about?
War, resources, alliances, international solutions.
When did the news come out?
The 6th of December, 2023
Where did they meet?
Putin arrived in Riyadh, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
They discussed the situation in Gaza as well as the situations in Yemen and Syria.
Why?
Since the war in Ukraine began early 2022, Putin has taken some business trips to the UAE.
In the most recent meeting, the leaders discussed the situation in Israel, Gaza, and Palestine.
Causes of Putin’s meeting:
- OPEC+’s decision to cut their outputs.
- Various wars and international armed conflicts
Consequences and Considerations
Putin’s visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia focused on strengthening bilateral relations, particularly in trade and energy. These visits, his first to the region since the Ukraine conflict began, highlight the significance of these Gulf Arab states to Russia’s international relations. Discussions included multifaceted bilateral cooperation, regional and international issues, with an emphasis on Middle Eastern situations. The trips underline growing commerce between Russia and these countries, with a notable increase in trade with the UAE.
Energy discussions were central, especially following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decision on output cuts, meaning they won’t be exporting as much oil- this can affect global oil prices and availability. Putin’s visits also reflect Russia’s strategic partnerships beyond Western influence, amidst an ICC (International Criminal Court) arrest warrant that doesn’t impact him in these nations.
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The leaders agree that there needs to be a bilateral agreement between Israel and Palestine to put an end to the war.
This is interesting because Putin doesn’t mention the ongoing war in Ukraine, or at least it’s hard to find coverage in the news on that topic specifically. His interest in helping resolve the war in Gaza could be an intent to better Russia’s public image. It could also be to distract the public from other news happening internationally. While most news sources are focusing on this meeting, other news brings light to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have just barely begun to be able to advance against Russian troops (this headline came out the same time as the meeting).
If Russia is tense with the United States, and both powers want to help end the conflict in Gaza. The US supports Israel, and Russia as of mid November this year has abandoned it’s neutral stance and now favors the Middle East (Ellyatt, CNBC, 2023).
Possible Outcomes and Geopolitical Implications around Israel
From an Idealist point of view I can hope all powers in conflict can come to an agreement to help resolve the war in Gaza without worsening the armed aspects. Idealism focuses on the positive aspects of Institutional Liberalism, so the international organizations have a moral responsibility to facilitate a peaceful resolution to these armed conflicts. This would be the best outcome though difficult to reach and apply when there’s already the war happening. It would require an immediate ceasefire and additional diplomatic meetings between Putin and Biden.
Using the Realist theory, we can predict that both world powers will increase their presence in the neighboring territories using their military power to forcefully, and most likely very destructively, put an end to the conflict. Since Realism indicates that human nature is aggressive and focused on survival, it’s likely that the war of “all against all” (Hobbes, 1651) will continue until someone surrenders, or a world superpower takes control of the geopolitical space. Whoever is able to end the war (no matter if peacefully or aggressively) will gain more influence in the Middle East. The US could use that power to increase relations and promote diplomacy albeit through intervention, whereas Russia could absorb the regional powers and their resources to pose a threat to the Western power.
Russia has a huge advantage over Israel now that it’s in cahoots with Saudi Arabia, whose territory barely touches the bottom of Israel. The physical closeness of Russia and it’s new allies to the Gaza war gives them a major advantage should they choose to physically enter the war. The US being separated by oceans and with land obstacles like Spain and then Italy to the East and the whole continent of Asia to the West.
This at first glance seems to limit American military actions in Gaza to purely air force.
However, the US has military bases and troops in Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Jordan (which directly blocks Israel from Saudi Arabia), and more countries— including troops IN Saudi Arabia (Axios, 2023).
U.S. troops and contractors in the Middle East
Source: Axios, 2023
This means that by Prince Salman agreeing to relations with President Putin is indirectly telling the US to get out of Saudi Arabia.
The balance of power is constantly shifting and we can see it preparing to dramatically change again, especially when leaders meet up like Putin with Zayed and Salman this December.
References
- Ellyatt, H. (2023, 17 noviembre). Russia is turning increasingly hostile toward Israel as it picks sides in the Middle East. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/russia-turns-against-israel-by-taking-sides-in-the-war-with-hamas.html#:~:text=As%20Israel’s%20assault%20on%20the,critical%20and%20hostile%20toward%20Israel.
- Jazeera, A. (2023a, diciembre 6). Russia-Ukraine War: List of key events, Day 651. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/6/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-651
- Cnn, B. <. H. C. S. T. A. <. H. V. (2023, 8 diciembre). LIVE Updates: Israel Hamas War, Humanitarian crisis worsens in Gaza. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-12-08-23/index.html
- Hobbes, T. (2016). Leviathan (1651) by Thomas Hobbes. Createspace Independent Publishing Platform.
- List, J. R. (2018, 22 junio). JRL NEWSWATCH: “As OPEC watches nervously, Russia and Saudi Arabia create a new axis – of oil; Russia is trying to be friends with everyone at once, and wielding growing influence” – Christian Scicence Monitor/Fred Weir. Johnson’s Russia List. https://russialist.org/jrl-newswatch-as-opec-watches-nervously-russia-and-saudi-arabia-create-a-new-axis-of-oil-russia-is-trying-to-be-friends-with-everyone-at-once-and-wielding-growing-influence-christian-scice/
- Haddad, M. (2021, 10 septiembre). Infographic: US military presence around the world. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive
- Where U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East. (2023). Axios. https://www.axios.com/2023/10/31/american-troops-middle-east-israel-palestine
- Turak, N. (2023, 7 diciembre). Biden’s support of Israel leaves him as isolated as Russia on the world stage, analyst says. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/07/bidens-support-of-israel-leaves-him-as-isolated-as-russia-on-the-world-stage-analyst.html
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