2024: Three Key Situations and Predictions

Welcome to a pivotal year in global politics and international relations – 2024. This period marks a significant turning point in the global power landscape. This blog post delves into three parts that will be essential to the evolving geopolitical scenario. Together, these changes have the potential to redefine economic and political dynamics worldwide, challenging established power structures and alliances. I will explore these dynamics, particularly focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the enduring Israel-Gaza war, and contemplate their implications from a Neoliberal perspective.

1. Power Shifts: New BRICS & 60+ Elections

2024 is not just a year of single events like the upcoming Olympics in France, but a year of MANY significant global changes. With over 60 elections scheduled worldwide, there’s potential for a major shift in the international power landscape. Each election presents an opportunity for changes in political parties, which could lead to shifts in national policies and international relations. Further amplifying this potential shift is the expansion of BRICS, which has welcomed five new members (Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt), significantly enhancing its influence in the global environment. This expansion of BRICS could reshape economic and political dynamics, challenging existing power structures.

1. Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, reignited last year, has been a focal point of international attention. Russia, a key actor and one of the original BRICS members, has fortified its position by welcoming new allies into the group, potentially gearing up for a larger conflict. As I analyzed previously, Russia has shown interest in resolving the Gaza conflict and engaged in strategic negotiations with Saudi Arabia, a new BRICS member. This development, coupled with Russia’s involvement in multiple international conflicts, sets the tone for heightened tensions with the USA, as both nations support different sides in these disputes.

1. Israel-Gaza Conflict

The longstanding Israel-Gaza conflict, a generational war, persists into the new year. The USA, traditionally a strong ally of Israel, is showing frustration over Israel’s overly aggressive responses in the conflict. The international community’s patience is wearing thin, with numerous global powers calling for an end to the hostilities. The threat of international intervention looms, as countries express readiness to actively involve themselves to bring about a resolution. This situation is particularly volatile, with potential repercussions for regional stability and global diplomatic relations.

Possible Outcomes From a Neoliberal Perspective

Least Probable: Global Power Reversal & World War

The least probable outcome of the mentioned events would be a complete global power reversal. It would happen if all the elections resulted in a change of political governance, changing the institutional goals and ideals of a massive part of the global society. In this scenario, the previously peaceful actors become violent and the major military and political powers will physically involve themselves in the hotspots of the world (Gaza, Ukraine), causing a World War Three. This is where the new BRICS comes into play, it could confront NATO and the European Union.

Probable: Tensions Increase

BRICS serves as a political and economic challenger to the USA and its allies. There will be more disagreements in public fora as politicians worldwide work at persuading their corresponding populations leading up to elections. Some elections will change governmental objectives, others will produce no change (this is difficult to summarize without analyzing the 60+ elections that will be taking place).

Very Probable: Economic Competition and Power Shifts

There will be disputes and discussions as politics change, but ultimately there will be an increase in institutional economic competition. In my personal blog I outline various indications which show the increase in BRICS new power and how this will contribute to a Multilateral World Order. Based on the Realist Security dilemma, North America will be attempting to increase it’s allies in response to the expansion of BRICS— however from a Neoliberal point of view, it will simply be healthy competition that impulses the global economy. We will not enter into war, too many world powers are gaining nuclear force and intensifying armed conflict would end in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which is of the less favorable and less probable outcomes.

Conclusions:

1. A world war is unlikely, but the current multitude of wars will continue, and how the bigger powers react will define 2024 as a year of peace or of war.
2. Power shifts are already happening (expansion of BRICS), and there are many more to come (60+ elections).
3. The world economy will become more competitive with new blocks and alliances.
4. As these events unfold, they will undoubtedly provide ample material for further analysis and discussion in the realm of international politics.

Thanks for reading!

References

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5. Cgtn. (2024, 1 enero). Five countries formally join BRICS. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-01/Five-countries-formally-join-BRICS-1q0oUn0eOTS/p.html
6. The BRICS Summit 2023: Seeking an alternate world Order? (s. f.). Council of Councils. https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order
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8. Armstrong, M. (2023, 8 mayo). The world at War in 2023. Statista Daily Data. https://www.statista.com/chart/21652/countries-with-armed-clashes-reported/